The Convolutions of Democracy

I was really surprised when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. I wasn’t the only one. The pollsters firmly lined up behind the ‘stay’ vote although it was expected to be a relatively close call.

Less surprising than the result was the reaction of financial markets to the result. The world saw red as the pound tumbled and the FTSE suffered significant losses. Financial commentators were lining up to tell us all how bad it all was and how bad it could get.

Equally unsurprising was the reaction of social commentators. Apparently overnight we saw an increase in racism throughout the United Kingdom. What utter bunk. The leave campaign tapped into the same undercurrent of xenophobia which exists throughout most countries. The high leave vote merely exposed what was always there.

At times like these it’s useful to remember that things are rarely as bad as they seem. Whilst some commentators have suggested that the United Kingdom is no longer a part of Europe, at least geographically the United Kingdom is still a part of Europe.

As time passes I suspect those in the United Kingdom will realise that they have much in common with those in the European Union. Both entities still have markets which require all kinds of goods. People in both entities still need largely the same services.

Common ground will be found although it might not be the same ground as before. That common ground will shift in the future. Few things in life are permanent. Change is constant and sometimes frustratingly so.

Perhaps in time historians will look back on the ‘Brexit’ and say that it was the period of distance the citizens of the United Kingdom needed in order to appreciate just how important Europe was to them. Perhaps different historians will say that it was the slap in the face Brussels needed to show them that central authority cannot and should not control everything.    

Whilst things may not be as bad as they seem they are often not as good as they seem either. This I imagine Malcolm Turnbull now keenly appreciates. In another surprising result the Australian electorate has delivered a fairly stinging rebuke to the Government by way of a significant swing against it.

As the election night wore on it became increasingly clear that the election was too close to call and that the nation wouldn’t know the outcome for some time. All of the major news outlets began to salivate at the frenzy of activity which was sure to follow. The time for the parliamentary leaders to speak grew near.

First shark into the tank was Richard Di Natale the leader of the Greens. He claimed a Greens victory. They didn’t win any more seats but they did hold Melbourne with an increased majority. This left the Greens just seventy-five seats short of government in a one hundred and fifty seat house. The Greens cannot form government. The Greens were not victorious.

Next into the pool was Bill Shorten. In a very upbeat speech he also claimed victory. The Labor party was back he exclaimed. To be fair the Labor party’s primary vote had increased. It had not increased enough to prevent it from being the second lowest primary vote in history for Labor. Labor cannot form government. Labor were not victorious.

Last shark in was Malcolm Turnbull. In yet another upbeat speech he all but claimed victory. He stated that he was very confident of forming a majority government. There was not much evidence to support this view. The Coalition have a chance of forming government. The Coalition were not victorious at the time of the speech.

As if the thought of three public figures all claiming victory for the same contest wasn’t absurd enough we had one more round to endure. The ABC expert panel covering the election wasted five minutes of their lives debating over who had really ‘won’ the election. The consensus seemed to be Labor although this ‘victory’ wouldn’t result in Labor actually governing Australia. I felt like throwing a dictionary at the television.

Over the next few days Australia began to realise that as confusing as the House of Representatives was looking the Senate is looking truly gordian. Derryn Hinch will be joining the chamber. Jackie Lambie has survived and is joined by a number of Senators from the Nick Xenephon Team and a number of One Nation Senators.

There were many in Australia who were quick to engage social media to give the ‘racists’ in the United Kingdom such a good thrashing. After the strong support shown for Pauline Hansen I’m sure there is something clever to say here about stones and glass houses.

Whilst initially the Senate might appear less friendly let’s just remember who we have lost. Ricky Muir, Dio Wang and Glenn Lazarus to name a few. It also looks like the chamber will no longer be graced by a family first senator.

I have no idea what Ricky Muir stands for or why he wanted to enter Parliament. The new Senators have a clear set of beliefs. Whilst the beliefs of Hansen are in my view particularly unhelpful, the major parties at least know what she stands for. This forms the basis for negotiation. All of sudden it doesn’t it doesn’t seem quite so bad.  

In any event it’s likely that over the next week or so the political situation in Australia will become clearer. Perhaps we will need to go back to the polls. I doubt that will be the case but perhaps it is the best thing to do. Regardless of the outcome things will remain, not quite as bad as they seem and not quite as good as they seem.